Showing posts with label world. Show all posts
Showing posts with label world. Show all posts

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Global Recession

Ini sedikit kilasan sejarah mengenai resesi global. Pemahaman yang sedikit ini setidaknya diharapkan dapat membantu kita untuk menyesuaikan diri dengan perubahan cepat yang terjadi dan fluktuasi yang begitu mudah mengalami perubahan.

This is the economic reality that will come crashing down around us in the next 2-6 years.

I'm just curious, do you also believe in the population bomb? Also, note that "peak oil" was has supposedly been reached in the 50's 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. I'm not saying that there are not significant natural resource concerns, there certainly are, but I do have to wonder where the certainty in your time frame comes from.

Peak oil in the US was in fact reached in the 70's. I don't recall anyone claiming it would hit world-wide until well into the middle of the 21st century. I have been reading that since the early 90's when I was in college.

I could argue that we are experiencing peak right now, but I am prudent enough to concede that many economic factors can be responsible for this, and can even reverse a peak over a few decades.

Peak oil (and peak copper, peak salmon, you name it) is but one of several self-limiting economic realities facing the world today. More immediate, however, is the necessity we have created for broad and unprecedented economic growth if we are recover from the debt incurred over the past 10 years. Or even the past 2 years, given the bail-out of hopelessly failed banking institutions. We are counting on the taxpayer to recover this wealth. We have said, "oops! It wasn't in CDO's, nope, nothing there."

Second, as the baby-boomers go into retirement, we don't have a large enough replacement population to support them, let alone liquidate their vast financial and real estate assets. They just watched at least a third of their wealth get wiped out.

So I think those two factors, and maybe some limitations on growth of energy and natural resources, will be the next big "crises" coincidental with this downturn.

What will turn bad to worse, however, is the fact that there is ZERO political will (aside from Ron Paul) to do something about our economic models and consumption habits.

006andahalf: Crown_of_Shoes: abnormalia: What if our economy is up right now, and the past spikes were just flukes? What if we're at the peak and getting ready for the real plunge?

This is the economic reality that will come crashing down around us in the next 2-6 years.

I'm just curious, do you also believe in the population bomb? Also, note that "peak oil" was has supposedly been reached in the 50's 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. I'm not saying that there are not significant natural resource concerns, there certainly are, but I do have to wonder where the certainty in your time frame comes from.

Don't bother - my time at fark has taught me quite a few things about about economic and political threads:

1) There are those that never worry and their political side is never wrong...
2) There are those that always worry and the other political side is never right...
3) Then there are those that wallow in the thought of misery like a pig in slop - the world is always a day away from total chaos and anarchy to them - and they will happily tell you why.

In all groups there are people who troll as if they were a part of these groups.

Then there are those who actually believe it but their real life behavior belies that fact. I doubt there are more than a handful of farkers posting from some mountain cave stocked with ammo and canned food, overlooking a private valley planted with vegetables, with a waterwheel and windmill providing limited but free electical power.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Harmonization Codes

Rethinking about your way to life. Are you seeking an answer? We don't pretend to have the answer. No promises are made here but maybe today you may find some angle you have not considered before, so we invite you to read more.

In everything ur doing you need harmonization. Kita boleh mencintai dunia tetapi jangan melupakan akhirat. Melaju menuju masa depan tanpa melupakan masa lalu. Segala sesuatu harus selaras namun bukan berarti memiliki kadar yang sama. Ada peribahasa Arab yang saya terjemahkan yaitu: "Barangsiapa mengejar akhirat maka dunia akan menjadi miliknya sekaligus. Akan tetapi bila seseorang hanya memikirkan persoalan dunia semata maka hanya itulah yang akan didapatkannya".

Peribahasa itu menyiratkan betapa pentingnya bagi kehidupan seseorang apabila ia menyeimbangkan aspek segala sesuatu dalam kehidupan sesuai dengan proporsi dan kombinasi yang tepat. Jangan hanya karena berusaha menyeimbangkan semuanya secara tepat sesuai dengan kadar yang sama maka kita memposisikan semua aspek dalam takaran yang sama, itu justru tidak tepat.

Keseimbangan yang dimaksud itu hampir dapat dikatakan bukanlah atau tidak mendekati sama sekali persamaan-persamaan perhitungan matematis yang menunjukkan bilangan-bilangan dan formulasi yang baku dan tetap, tetapi lebih mendekati suatu proses management yang mengatur penempatan masing-masing di posisi dan waktu yang tepat serta fungsinya untuk kelangsungan keseluruhannya. Keseimbangan dalam pandangan imaginasi dapat dibayangkan bagaikan suatu kekuatan-kekuatan dari segala unsur yang dalam interaksinya yang begitu komplekspun tetap mengikuti suatu hukum keteraturan yang harmonis.

Keberadaan keseimbangan itu sendiri secara makro maupun mikro selalu berkembang dan berubah dengan caranya yang sangat unik. Sebab, apabila suatu sistem yang berada dalam keadaan seimbang salah satu subsistem atau komponen sistemnya mengalami gangguan (perturbasi) maka seluruh sistem akan berubah.

There is a lot of aspect's what we can explore by dynamic thought. Flow naturally like everything God create in the world or universe. Harmonization is importent.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Global Recession?

Kapan resesi ekonomi dunia akan berakhir? Prediksi sebagian ahli ekonomi memperkirakan bahwa resesi ekonomi dunia berakhir ketika pertengahan tahun 2010. Itu artinya proses perbaikan semua sektor ekonomi di seluruh belahan dunia memakan waktu sekitar 2 tahun kedepan.

Ooh my god, betapa lamanya waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk pulih. Bayangkan saja belum ada empat bulan bencana ini sudah ada 60 ribu karyawan yang di PHK di Amerika Serikat. Ditambah dengan bangkrutnya perusahaan-perusahaan yang berbasis pada perdagangan eksport ke negara tersebut. Negara-negara dunia ketiga yang masih dalam kategori berkembang bahkan terbelakang (miskin) justru memerlukan waktu yang relatif lebih lama dari dua tahun untuk pulih akibat resesi global.

Akan tetapi jangan khawatir dengan prediksi tersebut, sebab ada kemungkinan pasar domestik di luar perekonomian negara-negara Barat dan benua Eropa justru tetap mampu bertahan dan lebih fleksibel. Resistensinya justru semakin diperkuat dengan meningkatnya kemampuan pasar domestik dan menguatnya pasar dalam negeri.

Berikut ini prediksi mengenai kapankah berakhirnya resesi global, ditinjau dari kilas balik peristiwa serupa di masa lampau:
Something unprecedented will happen in the next year or two that will extend this recession, or possible lead to a depression. The timing is aweful. We have record debt, ZERO savings, bankrupt pension funds across state and private sectors, and two wars. All of the things we spent the last decade's wealth on are zero-return investments, except for maybe some McMansions laying around. Maybe if we can secure oil riches from Iraq, to the tune of Saudi Arabia's current output and send the proceeds back to the U.S., but I don't even think that was the plan. We just don't have the energy and mineral resources that we had two decades ago, let alone five or six decades ago. The government has been lying about the CPI, inflation, etc. And now it is time we realize we have been in a decade-long recession, on that we tried to stave off with the housing bubble.

Lets see- of the 7 past recessions, how many were caused by a collapse of the housing market which precipitated a collapse of the vastly overextended derivative market, which led many of the major financial institutions to collapse or severely shrink? None of them? Sorry if I don't quite buy into the rosy picture these guys are painting.

Well, the 1929 crash was... DNRTFA so I don't know whether that was included. A fine example for looking at over-extended derivatives followed by credit crashes comes to you from Mexico. The 1984 crash is particularly interesting. This is one of the reasons I am not as terrified about the treasury turning the printing presses to full speed at the moment. A drop in the dollar would have significant long-term benefits and is long overdue for what should be by all rights an industrial economy. Of course Mexico couldn't keep it up due to significant governance problems, but that is for a different thread. What makes it a little more difficult is that despite the best efforts of the doom-and-gloomers, the dollar can't seem to help but gain strength because foreigners continue to seek "safety" in T-Bills.

Also, the current 'in-vogue' attitude that we're doomed and it's pointless to have any sort of optimism that has become pervasive across many of the forms of circulated media is not only tiresome but counterproductive. Realism in economics is one thing but pessimism helps no-one except Lou Dobbs and the local gun shop. Any legit equation for calculating growth factors in very significantly expectations for the future so if all of these ratings-whore asshats want to scare viewers into watching them, they're doing their part to lower expectations and by extension lower the possibility of growth.

Don't advocate by any means any sort of institutionally-imposed "optimism" but the outright partisan fear-mongering and sabotage is pathetic, tiresome, unhelpful and dare I say it, unpatriotic? Crying and screaming about a hypothetical panic only serves to create more panic. As they say, the truth is scary enough, it does not need to be embellished.

According to the New York Fed, "Research beginning in the late 1980s documents the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity."

Monday, the New York Fed released its latest "Probability of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread," with data through January 2009 and its recession probability forecast through 2010 (see chart above, click to enlarge). The NY Fed's model uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead (see chart below of the Treasury spread).

The Fed's data show that the recession probability peaked during the October 2007 to April 2008 period at around 35-40%, and has been declining since then to less than 10% for December 2008 and January 2009. Looking forward through 2009, the Fed's model shows a recession probability of only about 1% on average through the next 12 months, and below 1% by the end of the year (.82% by January 2010). The Treasury spread has been above 2% for the last 11 months, a pattern consistent with the economic recoveries after the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions. As the data and graph suggest, there is almost no possibility that the economy will be in recession by the middle of this year according to the Fed's model, which has accurately predicted the last 7 recessions, back to 1960.

Sekali lagi perlu kami ingatkan, semua informasi tersebut hanya merupakan sekilas pengetahuan dari keseluruhan kejadian yang mungkin baru sebagian terjadi. Setidaknya kita punya data baru untuk lebih optimis sekaligus waspada bahwa apapun yang akan terjadi percayalah harapan itu selalu ada.

"Never Give Up, Never Give Up, and Never Give Up". Berdo'a sembari kita semua berusaha.