Sunday, October 18, 2009

Global Recession

Ini sedikit kilasan sejarah mengenai resesi global. Pemahaman yang sedikit ini setidaknya diharapkan dapat membantu kita untuk menyesuaikan diri dengan perubahan cepat yang terjadi dan fluktuasi yang begitu mudah mengalami perubahan.

This is the economic reality that will come crashing down around us in the next 2-6 years.

I'm just curious, do you also believe in the population bomb? Also, note that "peak oil" was has supposedly been reached in the 50's 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. I'm not saying that there are not significant natural resource concerns, there certainly are, but I do have to wonder where the certainty in your time frame comes from.

Peak oil in the US was in fact reached in the 70's. I don't recall anyone claiming it would hit world-wide until well into the middle of the 21st century. I have been reading that since the early 90's when I was in college.

I could argue that we are experiencing peak right now, but I am prudent enough to concede that many economic factors can be responsible for this, and can even reverse a peak over a few decades.

Peak oil (and peak copper, peak salmon, you name it) is but one of several self-limiting economic realities facing the world today. More immediate, however, is the necessity we have created for broad and unprecedented economic growth if we are recover from the debt incurred over the past 10 years. Or even the past 2 years, given the bail-out of hopelessly failed banking institutions. We are counting on the taxpayer to recover this wealth. We have said, "oops! It wasn't in CDO's, nope, nothing there."

Second, as the baby-boomers go into retirement, we don't have a large enough replacement population to support them, let alone liquidate their vast financial and real estate assets. They just watched at least a third of their wealth get wiped out.

So I think those two factors, and maybe some limitations on growth of energy and natural resources, will be the next big "crises" coincidental with this downturn.

What will turn bad to worse, however, is the fact that there is ZERO political will (aside from Ron Paul) to do something about our economic models and consumption habits.

006andahalf: Crown_of_Shoes: abnormalia: What if our economy is up right now, and the past spikes were just flukes? What if we're at the peak and getting ready for the real plunge?

This is the economic reality that will come crashing down around us in the next 2-6 years.

I'm just curious, do you also believe in the population bomb? Also, note that "peak oil" was has supposedly been reached in the 50's 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. I'm not saying that there are not significant natural resource concerns, there certainly are, but I do have to wonder where the certainty in your time frame comes from.

Don't bother - my time at fark has taught me quite a few things about about economic and political threads:

1) There are those that never worry and their political side is never wrong...
2) There are those that always worry and the other political side is never right...
3) Then there are those that wallow in the thought of misery like a pig in slop - the world is always a day away from total chaos and anarchy to them - and they will happily tell you why.

In all groups there are people who troll as if they were a part of these groups.

Then there are those who actually believe it but their real life behavior belies that fact. I doubt there are more than a handful of farkers posting from some mountain cave stocked with ammo and canned food, overlooking a private valley planted with vegetables, with a waterwheel and windmill providing limited but free electical power.

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